中文导读

厄尔尼诺是太平洋海水异常变暖的现象，会给世界各地带来暴雨、干旱和高温。世界气象组织本周表示，当前这次厄尔尼诺仍在增强，强度可能前所未有。目前专家通常只能提前约六个月较有把握地预测厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜。澳大利亚国家科学机构 CSIRO 和墨尔本大学的研究人员没有去造更好的模型，而是检验了九个国家气候模型的7500多份历史预测，看看什么时候的预测更值得信任。结果发现，起点很关键：在拉尼娜状态下开始的预测即使提前一年也表现良好，三个模型预测“拉尼娜转厄尔尼诺”的正确率超过70%；而从中性年份开始的预测可靠性差得多。研究者也提醒，这一方法离用于日常业务预报还有几步。文章按“问题—研究—发现—意义与局限”展开，阅读时可留意 instead of、but、however 如何表达对比与转折，以及 may、could 如何限定结论。

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Every few years, a band of warm water spreads across the Pacific Ocean and changes the weather far away. This is El Niño. It can bring heavy rain to some places and long droughts to others. A new study suggests that scientists may be able to judge some El Niño warnings a full year before the event reaches its peak.

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每隔几年，就会有一片温暖的海水在太平洋上扩散开来，并改变遥远地方的天气。这就是厄尔尼诺。它可能给一些地方带来暴雨，给另一些地方带来长期干旱。一项新研究表明，科学家也许能够在厄尔尼诺事件达到峰值的整整一年前，判断某些厄尔尼诺预警是否可靠。

The question matters right now. The current El Niño is still growing stronger in the Pacific. Celeste Saulo, head of the World Meteorological Organization, said this week that it “could be unprecedented in strength.” A senior UN official called El Niño a “wrecking ball” of extreme heat, drought and floods.

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这个问题眼下很重要。当前的厄尔尼诺仍在太平洋上不断增强。世界气象组织负责人塞莱斯特·绍洛本周表示，它“强度可能前所未有”。一位联合国高级官员把厄尔尼诺称为带来极端高温、干旱和洪水的“破坏之锤”。

El Niño and its cooler partner, La Niña, usually reach their peak around December. Today, experts can normally forecast them with confidence about six months ahead. Looking further into the future has long been difficult, because many forecasts made a year in advance turn out to be wrong.

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厄尔尼诺和与之相对的偏冷现象拉尼娜，通常在12月前后达到峰值。如今，专家一般能提前约六个月较有把握地预测它们。再往后预测长期以来一直很难，因为许多提前一年做出的预测最终被证明是错的。

Researchers from CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, and the University of Melbourne took a different approach. Instead of trying to build a better model, they asked when existing forecasts can be trusted. They studied more than 7,500 past forecasts from climate models developed in nine countries. Then they checked how often each forecast had been right.

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来自澳大利亚国家科学机构 CSIRO 和墨尔本大学的研究人员换了一种思路。他们没有尝试建立更好的模型，而是追问现有预测在什么时候值得信任。他们研究了由九个国家开发的气候模型做出的7500多份过往预测，然后核对每份预测正确的频率。

The answer depended on the starting point. Forecasts that began during La Niña conditions performed well, even a year ahead. Three models correctly predicted a change from La Niña to El Niño more than 70 percent of the time. But forecasts that began in neutral years, when neither El Niño nor La Niña was present, were far less reliable. The study was published in the journal Science Advances.

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答案取决于起点。在拉尼娜状态下开始的预测表现良好，即使提前一年也是如此。有三个模型在超过70%的情况下正确预测了从拉尼娜到厄尔尼诺的转变。但在中性年份，也就是既没有厄尔尼诺也没有拉尼娜的时候开始的预测，可靠性要低得多。这项研究发表在《科学进展》期刊上。

“We can identify which forecasts deserve greater confidence,” said lead author Nandini Ramesh. That could help officials warn the public much earlier. However, she said the team is still “a few steps away” from using the method in the models that forecasting agencies run every day.

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“我们能够识别出哪些预测更值得信任，”论文第一作者南迪尼·拉梅什说。这可能帮助官员更早地向公众发出警告。不过她表示，团队距离把这一方法用于预报机构每天运行的模型，还有“几步之遥”。

Earlier warnings would not stop El Niño, because it is a natural event. They could still give people more time to prepare. Davide Faranda, a research director at France’s national research centre CNRS, said governments can store water more carefully and get communities ready for droughts or floods. Farmers can change planting dates and protect crops and animals from extreme heat. As Faranda put it, the key is to prepare for changes in where and when rain falls.

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更早的预警无法阻止厄尔尼诺，因为它是一种自然现象。但它们仍能让人们有更多时间做准备。法国国家科学研究中心（CNRS）研究主任达维德·法兰达说，政府可以更谨慎地储存用水，并让社区为干旱或洪水做好准备。农民可以调整播种日期，保护农作物和牲畜免受极端高温影响。正如法兰达所说，关键在于为降雨地点和时间的变化做好准备。

新闻来源

• Euronews · A year ahead of the ‘wrecking ball’: Scientists find new clue to predict when El Niño will strike (23 Oct 2026)
• Science Advances · Using initial states to identify successful El Niño–Southern Oscillation forecasts 1 year in advance (2026)

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