中文导读

人们常用“濒危”“易危”这样一个标签来概括一个物种的处境。新西兰奥塔哥大学的一项新研究提醒我们：一个标签有时会掩盖真实情况。竖冠企鹅只在新西兰南岛东南约800公里外的两组偏远岛屿上繁殖。研究团队在2022年至2024年间用无人机拍摄并清点了两地所有繁殖群，这是该物种第一次被完整统计。结果出人意料：面积只有50公顷的邦蒂群岛约有27,800对繁殖企鹅，而面积大40倍、一直被视为主要栖息地的安蒂波迪斯群岛约有29,800对。与20世纪90年代中期的记录相比，邦蒂群岛的数量至少25年基本不变，安蒂波迪斯群岛却减少了40%以上。研究者认为，繁殖群变小后难以抵御贼鸥（skua）对卵和幼鸟的捕食；另一种企鹅（凤头黄眉企鹅）数量锐减后，贼鸥可能转而捕食竖冠企鹅；更强的风暴引发山体滑坡；两地企鹅非繁殖期的觅食范围也不同。研究者把这种“一个物种、两种状态”的情况称为“薛定谔的企鹅”，并警告：若把两地平均，濒危等级可能降为“易危”，反而掩盖风险。文章按“常见做法—新的计数—对比结果—可能原因—保护意义”展开，阅读时可留意 believe、probably、may 等词如何表示原因只是研究者的推测。

正文

Scientists often describe the health of an animal species with a single label, such as “endangered” or “vulnerable.” A new study from New Zealand shows why one label can sometimes hide more than it explains. The study looked at the erect-crested penguin, and found that the species is living two very different lives at the same time.

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科学家常常用一个标签来描述一个动物物种的健康状况，比如“濒危”或“易危”。新西兰的一项新研究说明了为什么一个标签有时掩盖的比它解释的还多。这项研究考察了竖冠企鹅，发现这个物种同时过着两种截然不同的生活。

These penguins breed only on two remote groups of islands, the Bounty Islands and the Antipodes Islands, about 800 kilometers southeast of New Zealand’s South Island. Between 2022 and 2024, researchers from the University of Otago used drones to photograph and count every breeding colony on both island groups. It was the first full count of the species.

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这种企鹅只在两组偏远岛屿上繁殖：邦蒂群岛和安蒂波迪斯群岛，位于新西兰南岛东南约800公里处。2022年至2024年间，奥塔哥大学的研究人员用无人机拍摄并清点了两组岛屿上的每一个繁殖群。这是该物种第一次被完整统计。

The results surprised the team. The tiny Bounty Islands cover only 50 hectares, yet they held about 27,800 breeding pairs. The Antipodes Islands are 40 times larger and were long seen as the main home of the species, but they held about 29,800 pairs. When the researchers compared the new counts with records from the mid-1990s, they found an even bigger difference. The Bounty population has stayed almost the same for at least 25 years, while the Antipodes population has fallen by more than 40% since 1995.

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结果让研究团队感到意外。小小的邦蒂群岛面积只有50公顷，却有约27,800对繁殖企鹅。安蒂波迪斯群岛面积大40倍，长期被视为该物种的主要栖息地，却只有约29,800对。研究人员把新的统计结果与20世纪90年代中期的记录比较后，发现了更大的差异：邦蒂群岛的企鹅数量至少25年来几乎没有变化，而安蒂波迪斯群岛的数量自1995年以来下降了40%以上。

The researchers believe several problems have worked together on the Antipodes. As colonies became smaller, the birds could no longer defend their eggs and chicks so well against skuas, local seabirds that eat them. Another penguin species on the islands, the rockhopper, also declined sharply, probably because the ocean became warmer, so skuas may have turned to erect-crested penguins instead. Stronger storms have caused landslides that break colonies apart. Outside the breeding season, Antipodes birds also travel much farther into the open ocean than Bounty birds do.

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研究人员认为，安蒂波迪斯群岛上有几个问题共同起了作用。随着繁殖群变小，企鹅不再能很好地保护自己的卵和幼鸟，抵御以它们为食的本地海鸟贼鸥。岛上的另一种企鹅——凤头黄眉企鹅——数量也急剧下降，可能是因为海洋变暖，于是贼鸥可能转而捕食竖冠企鹅。更强的风暴引发山体滑坡，把繁殖群分割开来。在非繁殖季节，安蒂波迪斯群岛的企鹅还会比邦蒂群岛的企鹅游到远得多的开阔海域。

The team calls this situation “Schrödinger’s Penguin,” after a famous thought experiment about a cat in a closed box. Before careful counts were made, people assumed there was one answer for the whole species. When the researchers looked closely, they found two answers instead: stable in one place and shrinking in the other.

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研究团队把这种情况称为“薛定谔的企鹅”，名字来自一个关于封闭盒子里的猫的著名思想实验。在进行细致统计之前，人们以为整个物种只有一个答案。研究人员仔细观察后却发现了两个答案：在一处保持稳定，在另一处不断减少。

This matters for protection. The species is now listed as endangered, but that ranking was based on old population estimates from the 1970s. If the two groups were simply averaged, the ranking could improve to “vulnerable.” The researchers warn that such a change could hide the serious losses on the Antipodes Islands and give too little attention to the Bounty Islands, which may be exposed to large-scale fishing.

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这对保护工作很重要。该物种目前被列为濒危，但这一等级是根据20世纪70年代的旧种群估计数得出的。如果只是把两个种群简单平均，等级可能会改善为“易危”。研究人员警告，这样的变化可能会掩盖安蒂波迪斯群岛的严重损失，也会让人们对邦蒂群岛关注太少，而那里可能面临大规模捕捞的威胁。

新闻来源

• Phys.org（University of Otago）· Schrödinger’s penguin: One species, two contrasting outcomes (22 Oct 2026)
• PLOS ONE · Mattern et al., Schrödinger’s Penguin? Divergent population trajectories and the challenge of assessing the threat status of the Erect-crested penguin (2026), DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0359075

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