中文导读

每到飓风季，美国国家飓风中心（NHC）发布的“不确定性锥形图”都会被大量转发。它原本主要标出沿海地区的预警，但洪水、强风和龙卷风常常深入内陆。为此，该中心自2024年起测试在锥形图上加入内陆的热带风暴与飓风“警戒”（watch，可能出现危险）和“警报”（warning，预计出现危险）。佛罗里达州立大学研究团队在新版图正式启用前做了一项在线实验：398名佛罗里达州和佐治亚州居民被随机分配查看旧版或新版地图，再回答理解、风险感知和防护打算等问题。结果显示，新版图让人更容易找出警戒区域，但找出警报区域的能力没有提高，人们的风险感知和采取防护措施的意愿也没有变化；许多人仍把锥形的宽度误解为风暴的大小。论文发表在美国气象学会期刊《Weather, Climate, and Society》上，ScienceDaily 于10月20日转发了学校的报道。文章按“问题—应对—效果与局限”展开，阅读时可留意 However、But、More importantly 如何引出转折，以及 may、suggests 如何控制结论的确定程度。

正文

When a hurricane moves toward land, millions of people look at the same picture: a white cone on a map. It shows where the center of the storm may travel over the next few days. But a new study from Florida State University suggests that a clearer map does not always lead to safer choices.

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当飓风向陆地移动时，数以百万计的人会看同一张图：地图上的一个白色锥形区域。它显示风暴中心在接下来几天可能经过的位置。但佛罗里达州立大学的一项新研究表明，地图变得更清楚，并不总能带来更安全的选择。

The cone is made by the National Hurricane Center in the United States. For years, it mainly showed warnings along the coast. However, floods, strong winds and tornadoes can also hit towns far from the sea. So in 2024 the center began testing a new version that adds watches and warnings for inland areas as well. A watch means dangerous conditions are possible, while a warning means they are expected.

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这个锥形图由美国国家飓风中心制作。多年来，它主要显示沿海地区的预警。然而，洪水、强风和龙卷风也可能袭击远离海岸的城镇。因此在2024年，该中心开始测试一个新版本，把内陆地区的“警戒”和“警报”也加了进去。“警戒”表示可能出现危险天气，而“警报”表示预计会出现危险天气。

To see whether the change helped, the researchers carried out an online experiment with 398 people in Florida and Georgia. Each person was randomly shown either the old coast-only map or the new map with inland information. Then they answered questions about what the map told them, how serious the danger seemed and what they planned to do.

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为了检验这一改动是否有帮助，研究人员在佛罗里达州和佐治亚州对398人进行了一项在线实验。每位参与者被随机安排查看旧版的仅沿海地图，或带有内陆信息的新版地图。随后，他们回答了一些问题：地图告诉了他们什么、危险看起来有多严重，以及他们打算怎么做。

The results were mixed. People who saw the new map were better at finding the places under a watch. But they were no better at finding places under a warning. More importantly, they did not feel more at risk, and they were not more willing to take steps to protect themselves.

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结果好坏参半。看新版地图的人更善于找出处于“警戒”范围内的地方，但在找出处于“警报”范围内的地方方面并没有更好。更重要的是，他们并没有感到风险更大，也没有更愿意采取措施保护自己。

The study also found that an old mistake is hard to fix. Many people think a wider cone means a bigger storm. In fact, the cone grows wider because forecasters are less certain about where the storm will go later. People who viewed the new map even felt more able to judge the size of the storm, although the map does not show size at all.

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研究还发现，一个由来已久的误解很难纠正。许多人认为锥形越宽，风暴就越大。事实上，锥形之所以越来越宽，是因为预报员对风暴之后会走向哪里越来越不确定。看新版地图的人甚至觉得自己更能判断风暴的大小，尽管这张地图根本没有显示风暴大小。

The researchers say this is not a problem with the science. They describe the center’s forecasts as highly accurate. The difficulty is turning expert information into a message that ordinary people can understand quickly. “If people find information credible but still don’t understand it well enough to take protective action, then communication has fallen short,” said Patrick Merle, one of the authors.

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研究人员表示，这并不是科学本身的问题。他们认为该中心的预报非常准确。难点在于如何把专业信息变成普通人能够快速理解的信息。作者之一帕特里克·默尔（Patrick Merle）说：“如果人们认为信息可信，却仍然没有理解到足以采取防护行动的程度，那么沟通就是不到位的。”

Their advice is simple. Lead author Elizabeth Ray said that one graphic “can only tell you part of the story.” People should use the cone together with local forecasts that explain what may happen in their own area and what they should do next.

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他们的建议很简单。第一作者伊丽莎白·雷（Elizabeth Ray）说，一张图“只能告诉你故事的一部分”。人们应当把锥形图与当地天气预报结合起来看，后者会说明自己所在地区可能发生什么，以及接下来应该做什么。

新闻来源

• ScienceDaily (Florida State University) · Hurricane warning maps are improving, but a dangerous problem remains (20 Oct 2026)
• Florida State University News · FSU study finds new hurricane graphic helps people identify watch areas, doesn’t change risk perception (11 Aug 2026)
• Weather, Climate, and Society · Uncertain about the New Cone? How Nonexperts Perceive NHC’s Experimental Track-Forecast Product (2026)

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