中文导读

南非剑羚（gemsbok，学名 Oryx gazella）是一种原产于非洲南部卡拉哈里沙漠的大型羚羊，以长而笔直的角著称。1969至1977年间，95头剑羚被放归美国新墨西哥州的白沙导弹靶场（White Sands Missile Range），供人狩猎；此后它们已扩散到距放归地100多公里之外。美国伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校的 Nathan Alexander、Kieran Andreoni 和 Bob Schooley 在《哺乳动物学杂志》发表研究，借助公众拍摄并上传到 iNaturalist 等应用的观察记录，结合气温、降水、植被、地形和人口等因素建立物种分布模型，在三种气候情景下预测到2100年的适宜栖息地。2026年10月20日，美国西部公共广播合作项目 Mountain West News Bureau 也报道了这项研究。文章大致按“现象—原因—方法—发现—担忧—局限”展开：先交代剑羚从何而来，再解释它们为何适应干旱，接着介绍研究方法和预测结果，然后说明它们可能与牛和叉角羚（pronghorn）争夺食物，最后强调可能栖息地并不等于实际分布。阅读时可留意 yet、but、still 如何表示转折，以及 may、could、possible 如何限定预测的确定程度。

正文

Between 1969 and 1977, 95 large African antelopes called gemsbok were released on a military testing area in New Mexico, in the south-western United States, so that people could hunt them. Since then, they have spread more than 100 kilometres from where they were first let go. Now a new study suggests that a warmer climate could help them travel much further.

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1969年至1977年间，95头名为南非剑羚的大型非洲羚羊被放归到美国西南部新墨西哥州的一片军事试验区，供人们狩猎。从那以后，它们已经扩散到距最初放归地100多公里之外。如今，一项新研究表明，更温暖的气候可能帮助它们走得更远。

Gemsbok come from the Kalahari Desert in southern Africa, and they are very good at living in hot, dry places. An adult can weigh about 200 kilograms, yet it can get all the water it needs from the plants it eats, so it hardly needs to drink. Gemsbok also left their natural enemies, lions and hyenas, behind in Africa. Coyotes and mountain lions in the American south-west kill far fewer of them.

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南非剑羚来自非洲南部的卡拉哈里沙漠，非常善于在炎热干燥的地方生存。一头成年剑羚体重可达约200公斤，但它能从所吃的植物中获取所需的全部水分，因此几乎不需要喝水。剑羚还把它们的天敌——狮子和鬣狗——留在了非洲。美国西南部的郊狼和美洲狮捕杀的剑羚要少得多。

To learn where the animals might go next, researchers from the University of Illinois used photos of gemsbok that members of the public had uploaded to apps such as iNaturalist. They compared each place with its temperature, rainfall, plants, land shape and number of people. Then a computer model searched for similar conditions across the region under three climate scenarios up to 2100.

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为了弄清这些动物下一步可能去往哪里，伊利诺伊大学的研究人员利用了公众上传到 iNaturalist 等应用上的剑羚照片。他们把每个地点与当地的气温、降水、植物、地形和人口数量进行比较。随后，一个计算机模型在三种气候情景下，在整个地区寻找到2100年为止条件相似的地方。

The results, published in the Journal of Mammalogy, show that the land suitable for gemsbok is much larger than the area they use today. At present, much of it lies in small, separate patches. As winters become warmer, these patches may join together, making it easier for the animals to move. Possible new homes include western Texas, Arizona, Utah and parts of California, and even areas as far north as Montana.

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这项发表在《哺乳动物学杂志》上的研究结果显示，适合剑羚生存的土地远大于它们目前使用的区域。眼下，其中很多土地分散成一块块彼此分隔的小区域。随着冬天变暖，这些小区域可能连成一片，让这些动物更容易迁移。可能的新栖息地包括得克萨斯州西部、亚利桑那州、犹他州和加利福尼亚州的部分地区，甚至还包括北至蒙大拿州的一些地方。

This worries scientists because gemsbok eat many of the same plants as cattle and native animals such as pronghorn. In a serious drought, cattle are often taken off the land because there is no food for them, but nobody takes the gemsbok away, and they can live on poorer plants. Nathan Alexander, who led the study, said that in drought years, native species “might be a little bit more stressed“. In New Mexico, concern about damage to plants has already led to a fence that keeps gemsbok out of White Sands National Park.

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这让科学家感到担忧，因为剑羚吃的许多植物与牛以及叉角羚等本地动物相同。遇到严重干旱时，牛常常因为没有食物而被赶离草场，但没有人会把剑羚带走，而且它们靠质量较差的植物也能活下去。领导这项研究的 Nathan Alexander 说，在干旱年份，本地物种“可能会承受更大一些的压力”。在新墨西哥州，人们对植物遭破坏的担忧已经促成了一道围栏，用来把剑羚挡在白沙国家公园之外。

Still, a map of possible homes is not a forecast of where the animals will really live. Mountains, highways and farmland may slow or stop them, and some places that already suit them have no recorded gemsbok. Because ranchers, hunters and nature groups want different things, the researchers say managing the animals will be difficult but important.

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不过，一张可能栖息地的地图并不是对这些动物实际会生活在哪里的预报。山脉、公路和农田可能会减缓或阻止它们的扩散，而且一些本已适合它们的地方至今也没有剑羚的记录。研究人员表示，由于牧场主、猎人和自然保护团体各有不同诉求，管理这些动物会很困难，但也很重要。

新闻来源

• University of Illinois College of ACES · African gemsbok spreading in New Mexico: How far could they go under climate change? (8 Oct 2026)
• KJZZ / KUNR (Mountain West News Bureau) · African antelope could spread across the American West as winters warm, study finds (20 Oct 2026)
• Journal of Mammalogy · Predicted range expansion of exotic Gemsbok (Oryx gazella) under climate change in the United States (2026)

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