中文导读 西安附近的秦始皇兵马俑自1974年被发现以来，人们大多默认这些陶俑都出自成年男性工匠之手。秦始皇帝陵博物院研究者 Xiaoxi Li 领衔的团队换了一个角度：直接查看陶俑在烧制前留下的指纹。研究发表于《文化遗产杂志》（Journal of Cultural Heritage），Phys.org 于10月19日作了报道。文章大致按“常见看法—证据—重新理解”展开：先交代兵马俑和传统印象，再说明指纹纹线间距为何能提示年龄与性别、贝叶斯混合模型（Bayesian mixture model）如何从整体上估算，接着给出约45%、约33%、约22%三组比例，最后用一整段讲清研究的局限。阅读时可留意 suggest、may、estimated 等词如何保留结论边界：这些比例描述的是指纹，不是工匠人数，样本也只来自一号坑的一小片区域。
正文 Visitors to the Terracotta Army near Xi’an see thousands of life-size clay soldiers standing in silent lines . The figures were made in the third century BC to guard the tomb of Qin Shi Huang , the first emperor of a unified China , and they were discovered in 1974. For decades , many people simply assumed that adult men made them all . A new study suggests the real picture may have been more mixed
本段译文 来到西安附近兵马俑的参观者，会看到成千上万与真人等大的陶土士兵静静列队。这些陶俑制作于公元前3世纪，用来守卫中国第一个统一王朝的开创者秦始皇的陵墓，并于1974年被发现。几十年来，许多人理所当然地认为它们全部出自成年男性之手。一项新研究表明，真实情况可能更为多样。
The clue comes from the soldiers themselves . Before the clay was fired , workers pressed their fingers into it , and some of those marks survived . A team led by Xiaoxi Li , an archaeologist at the museum of the emperor’s mausoleum , studied 79 clear fingerprints on 36 figures from one area of Pit 1. The prints were found on arms , heads and body armor , which were made as separate parts and then put together .
本段译文 线索来自陶俑本身。在陶土烧制之前，工匠们把手指按进泥中，其中一些痕迹保存了下来。由秦始皇帝陵博物院考古学者 Xiaoxi Li 领衔的团队，研究了一号坑某一区域内36件陶俑上的79枚清晰指纹。这些指纹出现在手臂、头部和铠甲等部位；这些部件是分别制作、再组装到一起的。
Fingerprints can hint at age because the space between their lines grows wider as children grow . After people stop growing , men tend to have slightly wider spacing than women . However , the ranges overlap , so a teenage boy and an adult woman may leave very similar prints . Earlier methods that judged each mark one by one struggled with this problem .
本段译文 指纹能提示年龄，因为随着孩子长大，指纹纹线之间的间距会变宽。人停止生长后，男性的纹线间距往往比女性略宽。然而，不同群体的数值范围相互重叠，因此一个十几岁的男孩和一位成年女性可能留下非常相似的指纹。以往逐枚判断指纹的方法，很难解决这一问题。
The researchers therefore used a statistical tool called a Bayesian mixture model . Instead of labeling every print , it studies the whole group at once and compares it with modern fingerprint data from people of known age and sex . The results , published in the Journal of Cultural Heritage and reported on October 19, estimated that about 45 percent of the prints came from adult men . Nearly 33 percent came from adult women , and about 22 percent from young people under 15, an age limit taken from Qin legal texts
本段译文 因此，研究人员采用了一种名为“贝叶斯混合模型”的统计工具。它不给每一枚指纹单独贴标签，而是一次性分析整组指纹，并与已知年龄和性别的现代人指纹数据进行比较。这项结果发表在《文化遗产杂志》上，并于10月19日被报道。研究估计，约45%的指纹来自成年男性，近33%来自成年女性，约22%来自15岁以下的年轻人；15岁这一年龄界限取自秦代法律文献。
The authors are careful about what this means . The numbers describe prints , not people , because one worker could have left several marks . The sample comes from a single small area of a huge site , so it may reflect one group or one stage of work rather than the whole project . The modern reference data came from Europe , which could push up the share given to women and children . A print also shows that someone touched the clay , not that this person sculpted the figure
本段译文 作者们对这些结果的含义十分谨慎。这些数字描述的是指纹，而不是人数，因为一名工匠可能留下好几枚痕迹。样本只来自一处庞大遗址中的一小片区域，因此它反映的可能是某一组人或某一个工作阶段，而不是整个工程。作为参照的现代数据来自欧洲，这可能会抬高被归为女性和儿童的比例。此外，一枚指纹只能说明有人碰过这块陶土，并不能说明此人塑造了这件陶俑。
Even so , the study gives the first measured evidence that women and children may have helped create one of the world’s best-known ancient treasures . It also shows how small marks can tell new stories about the ordinary people behind great works .
本段译文 即便如此，这项研究首次提供了经过测量的证据，表明女性和儿童可能参与制作了这件世界上最著名的古代珍宝之一。它也说明，细小的痕迹可以讲出关于伟大作品背后普通人的新故事。
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