中文导读 提到珊瑚白化，人们首先想到的往往是高温海水，但澳大利亚的一项新研究把目光投向了“风”。莫纳什大学与墨尔本大学的研究团队分析了大堡礁1996—2024年的气象数据，论文于10月13日发表在《天气与气候动力学》（Weather and Climate Dynamics）上，澳大利亚联合新闻社（AAP）10月19日作了报道。研究聚焦风弱、云少、空气干燥的“无风带”（doldrums）天气：平常给海面降温的东风信风一旦消失，阳光就会让海水持续升温；而停滞在澳大利亚东部的低压系统与新西兰附近的高压系统，会让这种平静天气维持更久。2022年初的利斯莫尔洪水正是一个例子——同一套天气系统一边带来暴雨，一边把干燥空气送往大堡礁。目前澳大利亚气象局确认厄尔尼诺状况接近创纪录水平，这项研究因此更受关注。文章按“发现—证据—解释”展开，结尾说明研究还不能预测下一次白化何时发生，可留意 suggests、may、could、whether 等表达如何为结论划定边界。
正文 When people think about coral bleaching , they usually think about hot water . But a new Australian study suggests that a lack of wind may matter just as much . Researchers from Monash University and the University of Melbourne examined almost three decades of weather data from the Great Barrier Reef . Their paper , published in the journal Weather and Climate Dynamics and reported by Australian Associated Press on October 19, explains how calm weather can let heat build up in the ocean
本段译文 说起珊瑚白化，人们通常会想到海水过热。但澳大利亚的一项新研究表明，缺少风可能同样重要。莫纳什大学和墨尔本大学的研究人员分析了大堡礁近三十年的气象数据。他们的论文发表在《天气与气候动力学》（Weather and Climate Dynamics）期刊上，澳大利亚联合新闻社（AAP）于10月19日作了报道。论文解释了平静的天气如何让热量在海洋中不断积累。
The study looked at a weather pattern known as the doldrums . The word is an old sailing term for long periods without wind . Over the reef , the doldrums bring weak winds , fewer clouds and dry air . Trade winds from the east usually help cool the sea surface Lead researcher Lara Richards has called these winds “nature’s air conditioner ” for the reef . When they fail , more sunlight heats the water .
本段译文 这项研究关注一种被称为“无风带”（doldrums）的天气形态。这个词原是航海用语，指长时间没有风的状况。在大堡礁上空，无风带会带来微弱的风、较少的云和干燥的空气。来自东方的信风通常有助于给海面降温。首席研究员劳拉·理查兹（Lara Richards）曾把这种风称为大堡礁的“天然空调”。信风一旦消失，更多阳光就会加热海水。
Using data collected between 1996 and 2024, the team tried to find out why some calm periods last longer than others . This matters because “when doldrums hang around , the ocean remains in a heating phase for longer ,” Richards said , which can produce rapid increases in temperature and contribute to bleaching . Part of the answer lies far from the reef . Low pressure systems that stall over eastern Australia , together with high - pressure systems near New Zealand , can keep the usual winds away for longer .
本段译文 研究团队利用1996年至2024年间收集的数据，试图弄清为什么有些平静期会比其他平静期持续更久。理查兹说，这一点很重要，因为“无风带一旦久久不散，海洋就会更长时间处于升温阶段”，这可能导致水温迅速上升，并促成白化。部分答案来自远离大堡礁的地方：停滞在澳大利亚东部上空的低压系统，加上新西兰附近的高压系统，会让平常的信风更长时间无法到来。
One example came in early 2022, when low pressure systems brought heavy rain and floods to New South Wales and southern Queensland . Yet the same systems also sent dry air north across the country toward the reef . “The Lismore floods are a striking example of how the same weather system can produce very different conditions across Australia ,” Richards said . The event happened during La Nina , which shows that the doldrums are not limited to El Nino years .
本段译文 2022年初就有一个例子。当时，低压系统给新南威尔士州和昆士兰州南部带来了暴雨和洪水，但同样的系统也把干燥空气向北送过澳大利亚内陆，吹向大堡礁。理查兹说：“利斯莫尔洪水是一个鲜明的例子，说明同一个天气系统能在澳大利亚各地造成截然不同的状况。”那次事件发生在拉尼娜期间，这表明无风带并不只出现在厄尔尼诺年份。
The timing of the study is important . Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that El Nino conditions are nearing record levels , and sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea are expected to rise over the coming months . According to the study , calm periods raise the risk of marine heatwaves under El Nino conditions
本段译文 这项研究发布的时机很重要。澳大利亚气象局已确认，厄尔尼诺状况正接近创纪录的水平，预计未来几个月珊瑚海的海面温度还会上升。根据这项研究，在厄尔尼诺条件下，平静期会提高海洋热浪的风险。
Still , the research does not say when the next mass bleaching will happen . Yi Huang of the University of Melbourne said the next question is whether scientists can predict these events with existing computer models . In the long run , she added , it will require detailed climate models that allow the atmosphere and the ocean to interact directly
本段译文 不过，这项研究并不能说明下一次大规模白化会在何时发生。墨尔本大学的黄怡（Yi Huang）说，下一个问题是科学家能否用现有的计算机模型预测这类事件。她补充说，从长远看，这需要精细的气候模型，让大气和海洋能够直接相互作用。
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