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约7300年前，位于九州以南约30公里海底的鬼界破火山口发生鬼界—阿卡霍亚（Kikai-Akahoya）大喷发，是全新世规模最大的火山喷发之一，伴随强震、海啸和大范围火山灰。当时生活在日本列岛的绳文人以狩猎、捕鱼和采集为生。考古学界长期争论：这是一场让火山附近人类全部消失的“末日”，还是当地群体得以延续？剑桥大学恩里科·克雷马（Enrico Crema）为第一作者、隆德大学彼得·乔丹（Peter Jordan）为资深作者的国际团队在《科学进展》（Science Advances）发表研究，利用日本国立历史民俗博物馆数据库中筛选出的540个放射性碳测年数据作为人口活动的替代指标，把四个主要岛屿划分为61个区域，比较喷发前后各750年的人口趋势，并与火山灰厚度对照。结果显示：九州南部和中部人口急剧下降，但此前已在减少；九州北部及附近沿海人口持续增长，可能与幸存者北迁、海洋资源较快恢复有关；一些远离火山的地区人口增长停滞甚至下降，可能与短期降温、细火山灰危害健康或鹿和野猪牙齿磨损等因素有关，这些远距离影响此前未被识别。作者也承认，部分地区数据有限，厚火山灰可能掩埋遗址、影响判断，火山灰厚度与人口变化的关系仍无定论。隆德大学于10月14日发布新闻稿，Phys.org于10月17日转载；文中据这些报道和论文改写。

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About 7,300 years ago, a huge volcano under the sea south of Japan exploded. The Kikai-Akahoya eruption shook the islands with strong earthquakes, sent giant waves onto the coast and covered the land with meters of ash. For decades, archaeologists have argued about what it did to the Jomon people, who lived by hunting, fishing and gathering. A new study in Science Advances suggests the answer is neither simple collapse nor simple survival.

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大约7300年前，日本以南海底的一座巨大火山发生爆发。这次鬼界—阿卡霍亚（Kikai-Akahoya）喷发引发强烈地震，使各岛屿剧烈震动，巨浪冲上海岸，陆地被厚达数米的火山灰覆盖。几十年来，考古学家一直在争论这次喷发对绳文人造成了什么影响——他们靠狩猎、捕鱼和采集为生。《科学进展》（Science Advances）上的一项新研究表明，答案既不是简单的崩溃，也不是简单的幸存。

Some researchers had described the eruption as an “apocalypse” that ended all human life near the volcano. Others pointed to a pottery style that continued after the disaster, a sign that some local groups lived on. The international team, led by Enrico Crema of the University of Cambridge and Peter Jordan of Lund University, wanted to test both ideas with numbers.

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一些研究者曾把这次喷发描述为一场“末日”，认为它终结了火山附近的所有人类生命。另一些人则指出，有一种陶器风格在灾难之后仍在延续，这说明一些当地群体存活了下来。由剑桥大学的恩里科·克雷马（Enrico Crema）和隆德大学的彼得·乔丹（Peter Jordan）领导的国际团队，希望用数据来检验这两种观点。

Since nobody counted people at that time, the team used radiocarbon dates from archaeological sites as a sign of human activity. They studied 540 dates from a national database and divided Japan’s four main islands into 61 areas. Then they compared population trends in the 750 years before and after the eruption, and checked whether thicker ash matched bigger changes.

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由于当时没有人统计人口，团队把考古遗址中的放射性碳测年数据作为人类活动的标志。他们研究了一个全国性数据库中的540个测年数据，并把日本四个主要岛屿划分为61个区域。随后，他们比较了喷发前后各750年间的人口变化趋势，并检验火山灰越厚的地方，变化是否越大。

The results differed from place to place. In southern and central Kyushu, close to the volcano, the population fell sharply. However, numbers there were already falling before the eruption, so the disaster seems to have sped up an existing trend. In northern Kyushu and along nearby coasts, the population kept growing. The researchers think survivors may have moved north, where sea life recovered much faster than the damaged forests and rivers inland.

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结果因地而异。在靠近火山的九州南部和中部，人口急剧下降。不过，那里的人口在喷发之前就已经在减少，因此这场灾难似乎是加速了已有的趋势。在九州北部及附近沿海地区，人口则持续增长。研究人员认为，幸存者可能迁往了北方——那里的海洋生物恢复得比内陆受损的森林和河流快得多。

The study also found an effect nobody had noticed before. Some areas far from the volcano, which had been growing, stopped growing or even shrank. Possible reasons include a short period of cooler weather, health problems caused by fine ash, or worn-down teeth in deer and wild boar that ate plants covered in ash. These animals were an important food for the Jomon.

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研究还发现了一个此前无人注意到的影响：一些远离火山、原本人口在增长的地区，人口停止增长，甚至出现减少。可能的原因包括一段短暂的降温天气、细小火山灰引发的健康问题，或者鹿和野猪因啃食沾满火山灰的植物而牙齿磨损。这些动物是绳文人的重要食物来源。

“The disaster caused major loss of life,” Crema said. But he added that survivors moved, built new social relations and found new ways to make a living. Jordan said that even in terrible situations, communities still had choices about how to adjust and work together.

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“这场灾难造成了重大的生命损失，”克雷马说。但他补充说，幸存者进行了迁徙，建立了新的社会关系，并找到了新的谋生方式。乔丹表示，即使在极其艰难的处境中，各个群体仍然可以选择如何调整、如何协作。

The authors note clear limits. Data are thin in some regions, and thick ash may hide old sites, so some losses could look larger than they were. More work is needed, they say, to learn how people and animals returned to the worst-hit areas.

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作者们也指出了研究的明显局限：一些地区的数据较少，厚厚的火山灰可能掩埋了古代遗址，因此某些损失看起来可能比实际更大。他们表示，还需要更多研究来了解人类和动物是如何回到受灾最严重地区的。

新闻来源

• Lund University · How one of Earth’s worst volcanic disasters affected societies (14 Oct 2026)
• Phys.org · How one of Earth’s worst volcanic disasters affected societies in prehistoric Japan (17 Oct 2026)
• Science Advances · Divergent demographic responses to the Kikai-Akahoya volcanic catastrophe in mid-Holocene Japan (DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aeh7197)

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