中文导读

一项最新民调显示，多数美国人反对用预测市场押注选举与政府行动。本文比较这类市场的信息价值、赌博属性与监管争议，并说明民调只能反映公众态度，不能证明市场是否准确。

正文

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has brought a difficult question into public debate: when does a forecast become a bet? The online poll, carried out from September 30 to October 5, included 4,506 adults across the United States. It found broad concern about prediction markets, especially when the subject is an election or a government decision.

本段译文

一项新的路透社/益普索民调把一个棘手的问题带入公共讨论：预测何时会变成押注？这项在线民调于9月30日至10月5日开展，覆盖美国各地4,506名成年人。调查发现，公众普遍担忧预测市场，尤其当其对象是选举或政府决定时。

A prediction market lets people buy and sell contracts about a future event. A contract may ask whether a candidate will win, whether a policy will be announced, or whether a sports team will succeed. Its price moves as traders put money on different outcomes. Supporters say the changing price can show what a large group expects to happen. However, participants can also lose money, so the same system may look like gambling.

本段译文

预测市场让人们买卖与未来事件有关的合约。一份合约可能询问某位候选人是否会获胜、某项政策是否会公布，或某支运动队是否会成功。随着交易者把钱押在不同结果上，合约价格也会变化。支持者说，不断变化的价格可以显示一个大群体预计会发生什么。然而，参与者也可能亏钱，因此同一个系统也可能看起来像赌博。

The poll found that 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposed using such markets to bet on election results. Sixty-five percent of all respondents opposed bets on US military action, and 63% opposed bets on government policy. Only 8% and 9%, respectively, supported these two kinds of contracts. Three quarters of those questioned said prediction markets for real-world events were a form of gambling.

本段译文

民调发现，69%的民主党人和61%的共和党人反对利用这类市场押注选举结果。65%的所有受访者反对押注美国军事行动，63%反对押注政府政策。只有8%和9%的受访者分别支持这两类合约。四分之三的受访者认为，针对现实世界事件的预测市场是一种赌博。

The companies do not accept that this is the whole picture. Polymarket and Kalshi say they use controls to find suspicious activity. They also argue that markets can collect information faster than traditional polls and help people protect themselves from some risks. A price may change at once when new information appears, while a survey usually needs time to be carried out and published.

本段译文

这些公司不接受这就是事情的全貌。Polymarket和Kalshi表示，它们会使用管控措施来发现可疑活动。它们还主张，市场能比传统民调更快汇集信息，并帮助人们防范某些风险。新信息出现时，价格可能立即变化，而一项调查通常需要时间才能完成并发布。

Yet speed creates another problem. Someone with secret information may trade before the public learns the news. A rich trader may also try to move a price and make one result appear more likely. Reuters reported that Kalshi has stopped candidates from betting on their own races. Both companies say they work with authorities when activity seems suspicious.

本段译文

然而，速度也带来了另一个问题。掌握秘密信息的人可能在公众获知消息前交易。资金雄厚的交易者也可能试图推动价格，让某个结果显得更有可能。路透社报道，Kalshi已阻止候选人押注自己的竞选结果。两家公司都表示，一旦活动看起来可疑，就会与监管部门合作。

The legal question is still open. On October 9, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed treating contracts tied to politics, sports, culture, and weather as financial products called swaps. Several states argue that some contracts are gambling and should follow state rules instead. The poll measures public opinion, not the accuracy of any market. Still, it shows that many Americans want a clear line between useful forecasting and betting on public life.

本段译文

法律问题仍未解决。10月9日，美国商品期货交易委员会提议，把与政治、体育、文化和天气有关的合约视为一种名为互换合约的金融产品。几个州则主张，部分合约属于赌博，应改为遵守州级规则。该民调衡量的是公众意见，而非任何市场的准确性。尽管如此，它表明许多美国人希望在有用的预测和拿公共生活下注之间划出清晰界线。

新闻来源

Reuters · Most Americans oppose betting on elections, government events, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

Ipsos · Reuters/Ipsos October Survey

CFTC · CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Concerning the Inclusion of Certain Event Contracts in the Definition of Swap

EL PAÍS · Polymarket y los mercados de predicciones: un negocio millonario ante el abismo regulatorio

✳更多文章 →