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新加坡总统尚达曼10月12日警告，AI正在削弱部分行业对新毕业生的需求。本文比较不同机构的判断，解释第一份工作为何不仅提供收入，也承担着把新手培养成成熟劳动者的作用。

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At the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok on October 12, Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam raised a problem for young workers. He said demand for fresh graduates was falling in the sectors most exposed to artificial intelligence. In his view, the “first rung” of the career ladder needs attention soon. His warning matters because a first job does more than provide income. It is often where a graduate learns how a workplace really operates.

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10月12日，在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议上，新加坡总统尚达曼提出了年轻劳动者面临的一个问题。他说，在最容易受到人工智能影响的行业里，企业对新毕业生的需求正在下降。在他看来，职业阶梯的“第一级”很快就需要得到重视。他的警告很重要，因为第一份工作提供的不只是收入。毕业生往往正是在这里学习职场实际如何运转。

Many entry-level jobs include routine tasks such as collecting information, preparing simple reports or answering common questions. AI can complete some of this work quickly. A company may therefore decide that it needs fewer junior employees. Yet removing these tasks creates another problem. Beginners usually gain experience through smaller duties before they handle difficult decisions. If the first step disappears, businesses may later find that fewer workers are ready for senior roles.

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许多入门岗位包含收集信息、准备简单报告或回答常见问题等常规任务。人工智能能够迅速完成其中一部分工作。因此，公司可能认为自己不再需要那么多初级员工。然而，取消这些任务也会产生另一个问题。新手通常先通过较小的职责积累经验，然后才处理困难的决策。如果第一个台阶消失，企业日后可能会发现，能够胜任高级职位的员工变少了。

The wider picture is not entirely negative. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said AI investment was helping keep global growth near 3 percent. She said the technology could affect about 40 percent of jobs worldwide and up to 60 percent in advanced economies. “Affect” does not always mean “replace.” Some jobs may disappear, but others may become more productive when AI assists workers.

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更大的图景并非完全负面。国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃表示，人工智能投资正在帮助全球经济增长维持在接近3%的水平。她说，这项技术可能影响全球约40%的岗位，在发达经济体中这一比例可能达到60%。这里的“影响”并不总是指“取代”。有些岗位可能消失，但另一些岗位也可能在人工智能协助劳动者时提高生产率。

There is also disagreement about how serious the entry-level danger will be. World Bank President Ajay Banga said he was not convinced that AI would destroy these jobs everywhere. He expected greater disruption in advanced economies that develop large AI models. In emerging markets, smaller AI tools could instead help farmers, health clinics and teachers. This suggests that the effect depends on how and where the technology is used.

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人们对于入门岗位面临的危险究竟有多严重也存在分歧。世界银行行长阿贾伊·班加表示，他并不确信人工智能会在所有地方摧毁这些岗位。他预计，开发大型人工智能模型的发达经济体会受到更大冲击。在新兴市场，规模较小的人工智能工具反而可以帮助农民、诊所和教师。这说明，影响取决于技术在何处以及如何使用。

An IMF working paper adds another condition. Countries that are already prepared may adopt AI earlier and gain sooner. Developing economies may face delays and higher costs. Inside each country, skilled workers may benefit more, while younger people who depend mainly on wages may face greater pressure. Better education, training and productivity can narrow this gap, but such changes require time and investment.

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国际货币基金组织的一篇工作论文还提出了另一个条件。已经做好准备的国家可能更早采用人工智能，也更早获益。发展中经济体则可能面对采用延迟和较高成本。在一国内部，技能较高的劳动者可能获益更多，而主要依赖工资的年轻人可能承受更大压力。改善教育、培训和生产率能够缩小这种差距，但这些改变需要时间和投入。

The challenge is therefore not simply to protect every old task. Employers and schools may need to redesign the path into work. Young people must learn to use AI, check its results and make judgments that machines cannot make alone. Companies must also keep real training, guidance and chances to take responsibility. AI may remove part of the first job, but society still needs a first step that turns beginners into experienced workers.

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因此，挑战并不只是保护每一项旧任务。雇主和学校可能需要重新设计进入职场的路径。年轻人必须学会使用人工智能、检查其结果，并作出机器无法独立完成的判断。公司也必须保留真正的培训、指导和承担责任的机会。人工智能或许会删去第一份工作的一部分，但社会仍然需要一个能把新手变成有经验劳动者的第一步。

新闻来源

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