中文导读

2026年经济学奖刚刚授予罗伯特·E·霍尔和迈克尔·伍德福德。本文用家庭、企业和中央银行的例子，解释“小选择如何汇成整体经济”这一核心问题。

正文

On Monday, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences gave the 2026 economics prize to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford. The academy said their work built “microeconomic foundations” for keeping the wider economy stable. The award is worth 12 million Swedish kronor. Its formal name is the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.

本段译文

周一，瑞典皇家科学院将2026年经济学奖授予罗伯特·E·霍尔和迈克尔·伍德福德。科学院表示，他们的研究为保持宏观经济稳定建立了“微观经济基础”。该奖奖金为1200万瑞典克朗，正式名称是“瑞典中央银行纪念阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔经济学奖”。

The key idea sounds difficult, but it begins with a simple question: how do millions of small choices shape inflation, jobs, and growth? Macroeconomics studies the whole economy. Microeconomics studies decisions by families, workers, and companies. Models become more useful when they connect these two levels instead of treating people as one large group. A national fall in spending, for example, may grow from many families deciding to save at the same time.

本段译文

这个核心思想听起来很难，但它始于一个简单问题：数以百万计的小选择如何影响通胀、就业和增长？宏观经济学研究整体经济，微观经济学研究家庭、劳动者和企业的决定。当模型把这两个层面连接起来，而不是把人们视为一个大群体时，就会更有用。例如，全国消费下降，可能源于许多家庭同时决定储蓄。

Woodford’s research showed why expectations can change the effect of monetary policy. A central bank may influence spending before it changes an interest rate. It can explain where rates are likely to go, a method called forward guidance. If families believe rates will stay low, they may borrow or buy sooner. Companies may also invest or hire. However, the message works only when people trust it.

本段译文

伍德福德的研究说明了预期为何会改变货币政策的效果。中央银行可能在调整利率之前就影响消费。它可以说明未来利率可能走向何方，这种方法被称为“前瞻指引”。如果家庭相信利率会保持低位，他们可能会更早借款或购买，企业也可能投资或招聘。然而，只有在人们信任这些信息时，它才会起作用。

Hall has studied employment, inflation, and economic slowdowns. His work examines how workers find jobs and how companies decide whether to hire. Recruiting takes time and money, while wages do not always change quickly. After a shock, employers may delay hiring even when business starts to improve. This helps researchers understand why unemployment can rise fast but often falls more slowly.

本段译文

霍尔研究过就业、通胀和经济放缓。他的工作考察劳动者如何找到工作，以及企业如何决定是否招聘。招聘需要时间和金钱，而工资并不总能迅速变化。一次冲击之后，即使业务开始好转，雇主也可能推迟招聘。这帮助研究人员理解，为何失业率可能迅速上升，却往往下降得更慢。

Together, such work gave economists a clearer way to test policy. A model can begin with household budgets, company costs, job searches, and beliefs about the future. It can then show how these choices may produce a national result. Central banks use related models when they compare possible paths for rates, prices, and employment. These comparisons can reveal both the likely benefit of a policy and the risk of waiting too long.

本段译文

这些研究共同为经济学家提供了更清晰的政策检验方法。一个模型可以从家庭预算、企业成本、求职过程以及对未来的看法出发，再说明这些选择可能怎样形成全国性结果。中央银行在比较利率、物价和就业的不同可能路径时，会使用相关模型。这些比较既能揭示一项政策可能带来的好处，也能显示等待过久的风险。

Still, a model is not a perfect map. People do not always act as expected, and a war, disease, or energy shock can quickly change the picture. Results also depend on the facts and assumptions put into the model. The prize does not mean every policy will succeed. It recognizes a stronger bridge between everyday decisions and the difficult task of guiding an entire economy.

本段译文

不过，模型并不是完美的地图。人们并不总会按照预期行动，战争、疾病或能源冲击也可能迅速改变局面。结果还取决于输入模型的事实和假设。这个奖项并不意味着每项政策都会成功；它认可的是一座更坚实的桥梁，把日常决定与引导整个经济这一艰难任务连接起来。

新闻来源

• AP · Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford win Nobel memorial prize in economics
• The Guardian · Nobel prize for economics to be awarded to Hall and Woodford – business live
• El País · Premio Nobel de Economía 2026 para Michael Woodford y Robert E. Hall
• NBER · The Inexorable Recoveries of Unemployment

✳更多文章 →