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IPCC成员国代表定于10月12日至16日在亚的斯亚贝巴开会，但下一批关键气候报告的发布时间仍未确定。本文解释为何“赶上2028年气候谈判”与“让资源较少地区充分参与”会形成真实的权衡。

正文

A meeting in Addis Ababa may decide when the world’s next major climate reports will be ready. Representatives of the 195 member states of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, are scheduled to meet from October 12 to 16. After almost three years of debate, they still have not agreed on the timetable for three key scientific reports.

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在亚的斯亚贝巴举行的一场会议可能决定下一批重要的全球气候报告何时完成。政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的195个成员国代表定于10月12日至16日开会。经过近三年的争论，各方仍未就三份关键科学报告的时间表达成一致。

The IPCC does not carry out its own experiments. It brings together hundreds of experts to examine thousands of existing studies. Member governments then review and approve the main findings. One report will explain the causes and extent of climate change. A second will examine risks and ways to adapt. A third will consider how to limit further warming.

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IPCC并不亲自开展实验，而是组织数百名专家审查数千项已有研究，随后由成员国政府审议并批准主要结论。其中一份报告将解释气候变化的原因和程度，第二份将研究风险与适应方式，第三份将讨论如何限制进一步变暖。

The argument concerns whether all three reports should be approved by September 2028. Supporters say this would place the latest evidence before important United Nations climate talks in November that year. Governments will then review progress under the Paris Agreement and discuss national targets and climate finance. Without new reports, negotiators may need to depend on assessments published in 2021 and 2022.

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争议在于三份报告是否都应在2028年9月前获批。支持者认为，这能让最新证据赶在当年11月的重要联合国气候谈判前发布。届时，各国政府将审视《巴黎协定》下的进展，并讨论国家目标和气候资金。如果没有新报告，谈判者可能不得不依赖2021年和2022年发布的评估。

However, several countries want the second and third reports to appear in 2029. They say the faster timetable may be too short for experts to study the evidence, agree on careful wording, and complete several rounds of review. Scientists in poorer countries may also have fewer resources. Some must do IPCC work without pay while keeping their usual jobs, and research from their regions can take longer to publish.

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不过，一些国家希望第二和第三份报告到2029年再发布。它们认为，更快的时间表可能不足以让专家研究证据、谨慎确定措辞并完成多轮审查。较贫穷国家的科学家也可能资源更少；有些人必须在保留本职工作的同时无偿参与IPCC工作，而来自这些地区的研究也可能需要更长时间才能发表。

This creates a real trade-off. A report that comes too late may have less influence when major decisions are made. Yet a process that moves too quickly may leave out important knowledge and voices. That could weaken confidence in a body whose reports must be accepted by every member state. The disagreement therefore concerns not only speed, but also fairness and trust.

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这形成了真正的权衡。报告发布过晚，可能在重大决策作出时影响力较小；但流程推进过快，也可能遗漏重要知识和声音。这会削弱人们对该机构的信心，而其报告必须获得每个成员国接受。因此，这场分歧不仅关乎速度，也关乎公平与信任。

The Addis Ababa meeting had not opened when this article was prepared, so its result was not yet known. The dispute also does not mean that climate science itself has stopped. Researchers continue to publish new work, and one IPCC draft is already under expert review. The central question is how to turn a large and changing body of knowledge into a shared report that is both timely and inclusive. That balance determines whether science can guide action at the moment it is needed.

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本文准备时，亚的斯亚贝巴会议尚未开幕，因此结果仍不清楚。这场争议也不意味着气候科学已经停滞。研究人员仍在发表新成果，一份IPCC草案也已进入专家审查。核心问题是如何把庞大且不断变化的知识整理成既及时又包容的共同报告。这种平衡决定了科学能否在最需要的时候指导行动。

新闻来源

• Reuters｜Inside the deadlock at the world’s top climate science body
• IPCC｜IPCC’s Sixty-Fifth Session in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
• Folha de S.Paulo｜Membros do Painel Climático da ONU não chegam a consenso sobre próximos relatórios

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