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10月11日，四级飓风Simon沿墨西哥太平洋海岸近海北上，是否登陆仍不确定。文章解释风眼留在海上时，强风、风暴潮、暴雨和山体滑坡为何仍会威胁沿海社区。

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On October 11, Hurricane Simon moved north beside Mexico’s Pacific coast as a powerful Category 4 storm. Its eye was still over the ocean, and forecasters were unsure whether the center would cross the coast. Yet the danger was already real. Strong winds and heavy rain were hitting communities between the Sierra Madre mountains and the sea. The situation shows why “landfall” is not the only measure of a storm’s threat.

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10月11日，飓风Simon作为强大的四级飓风，沿墨西哥太平洋海岸向北移动。它的风眼仍在海面上，预报人员尚不确定中心是否会穿过海岸。然而，危险已经成为现实。强风和暴雨正袭击位于马德雷山脉与大海之间的社区。这种情况说明，“登陆”并不是衡量风暴威胁的唯一标准。

A hurricane is much larger than its eye. Dangerous winds can reach far from the center, while the storm pushes ocean water toward land. This creates a storm surge, which can raise the sea above its usual level. Large waves then add more force. Reuters reported that damaging winds, dangerous water and destructive waves were likely even if Simon’s center remained offshore.

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飓风的范围远大于它的风眼。危险的风能延伸到距中心很远的地方，同时风暴会把海水推向陆地。这会形成风暴潮，使海面高于通常水位。巨浪随后又增加了力量。路透社报道称，即使Simon的中心仍停留在近海，破坏性大风、危险水位和毁坏性海浪仍很可能出现。

Rain creates a different risk. The Associated Press said many places could receive 25 to 50 centimeters, while some areas in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco could get as much as 76 centimeters. These states have steep land close to the coast. Water can run quickly down hills, fill rivers and loosen earth. As a result, heavy rain may cause sudden floods and mudslides far from the beach.

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降雨会造成另一种风险。美联社称，许多地方可能出现25至50厘米降雨，而米却肯州、科利马州和哈利斯科州的部分地区降雨量可能高达76厘米。这些州的沿海附近有陡峭地形。雨水会迅速流下山坡、灌满河流，并使土壤松动。因此，暴雨可能在远离海滩的地方引发突发洪水和山体滑坡。

Authorities acted before the path became certain. Mexico placed 28 towns and cities in Jalisco and Colima under its highest cyclone alert. Another 93 were under a high alert. People were being moved from dangerous areas, and emergency shelters were opened. Puerto Vallarta’s airport closed for a time. Jalisco also stopped classes in 22 coastal areas.

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在路径确定前，当局便采取了行动。墨西哥把哈利斯科州和科利马州的28个城镇列入最高级别气旋警报，另有93个地区处于高级别警报。人们正从危险地区转移，应急避难所已经开放。巴亚尔塔港机场一度关闭。哈利斯科州还暂停了22个沿海地区的课程。

The storm’s speed and direction made planning harder. Reuters said that at 9 a.m. local time, Simon had winds of 230 kilometers per hour and was moving north-northwest at only 11 kilometers per hour. Its center was about 105 kilometers from Manzanillo. A slow storm can keep rain, wind and waves over the same area for longer, although its exact path may still change.

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风暴的速度和方向让应对规划更加困难。路透社称，当地时间上午9点，Simon的风速为每小时230公里，并以每小时仅11公里的速度向西北偏北移动。其中心距曼萨尼约约105公里。移动缓慢的风暴可能让降雨、大风和海浪在同一地区停留更久，尽管它的确切路径仍可能变化。

Forecasts are updated as new information arrives, so these positions and wind speeds describe one point in time. They do not predict exactly what every town will experience. However, the central lesson is clear: a hurricane does not need to place its eye over land to do serious harm. Its size, rain, speed and the shape of the land can matter as much as the line followed by its center.

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预报会随着新信息到来而更新，因此这些位置和风速只描述某一个时点。它们不能准确预测每个城镇会经历什么。不过，核心结论很明确：飓风不需要让风眼移动到陆地上，也能造成严重破坏。它的范围、降雨、速度和地形，与风暴中心沿着哪条线移动同样重要。

新闻来源

• Associated Press · Hurricane Simon pounds resorts and vulnerable towns along Mexico’s Pacific coast
• Reuters · Mexico’s Sheinbaum urges coastal residents to remain indoors as Hurricane Simon nears coast
• El País · Jalisco y Colima se preparan para la embestida del huracán ‘Simón’, de categoría cuatro
• National Hurricane Center · Hurricane SIMON Advisory Archive

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